Thanks to subscription services like Moviepass, AMC A-List, Netflix, and others, I was able to see more new releases in 2018 than any year previous. I didn’t see everything, of course, but I saw a lot. All the nominees in the major categories and a bunch that I felt were better films that got overlooked. Below, find my picks in bold, as well as some brief thoughts on each race.

I think best picture can go one of two ways-either Roma hits most of the awards it’s up for, or Green Book does. I think it will become obvious early in the night which one it’s going to be, so this won’t be a mystery for long.

Best Picture

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Green Book

Roma

A Star Is Born

Vice

The more I think about Bohemian Rhapsody, the less I like it. I think Malek is going to win because he has the movement and attitude down, but the film as a whole is a bit of a mess. No one else stands out, though, so congratulations!

Actor in a Leading Role

Christian Bale, Vice

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Glenn Close is getting a career award for a role in a movie very few people actually saw, which is fine because she deserves an Oscar after all these years. I’d prefer it go to Olivia Colman, but The Favourite‘s 10 nominations will have to be enough.

Actress in a Leading Role

Yalitza Aparicio, Roma

Glenn Close, The Wife

Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Toughest category of the night. Every single nominee deserving of the prize. Regina King is the best thing in a fantastic movie that isn’t getting nearly the love it deserves at this year’s Oscars. Are they blaming Barry Jenkins for their Best Picture screwup a couple years ago?

Actress in a Supporting Role

Amy Adams, Vice

Marina de Tavira, Roma

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Emma Stone, The Favourite

Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

This one is Ali’s to lose and it has been since Green Book came out. Loved Driver in BlacKkKlansman, but Ali has been on a roll and I can’t argue he’s great in this as well.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born

Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Sam Rockwell, Vice

Why Adam McKay got nominated for Vice is beyond me. It’s basically The Big Short with some different actors. All the same tricks get used to tell his story of Dick Cheney and the evil within. I actually would have preferred Cooper get a nod here instead of acting, because the direction of A Star Is Born is way better than his subpar performance.

Directing

BlacKkKlansman, Spike Lee

Cold War, Paweł Pawlikowski

The Favourite, Yorgos Lanthimos

Roma, Alfonso Cuarón

Vice, Adam McKay

Spike Lee winning Oscars is what I came to see, and it’s what I’m going to get. I don’t expect him to go off during his speech because he tends to play it safe in these situations. He has too much respect for the Academy to stir the pot too much.

Adapted Screenplay

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Joel Coen and Ethan Coen

BlacKkKlansman, Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, and Spike Lee

Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty

If Beale Street Could Talk, Barry Jenkins

A Star Is Born, Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, and Will Fetters

All good stuff here, but Green Book is probably going to win over Schrader’s brilliant story and Roma‘s foreign language screenplay.

Original Screenplay

The Favourite, Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara

First Reformed, Paul Schrader

Green Book, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, and Peter Farrelly

Roma, Alfonso Cuarón

Vice, Adam McKay

Roma is taking this AND best picture unless the voters decide to give a different foreign film their vote after handing the big award to Cuarón. If that’s the case, I expect it to go to Cold War, which is also a great movie.

Foreign Language Film

Capernaum, Lebanon

Cold War, Poland

Never Look Away, Germany

Roma, Mexico

Shoplifters, Japan

I had Incredibles 2 at the top of my list for a long time, but Spider-Verse is too good not to hand it this award and any others you may have lying around.

Animated Feature

Incredibles 2

Isle of Dogs

Mirai

Ralph Breaks the Internet

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

I’d like to see Terence Blanchard win, but I think this one goes to Beale Street.

Original Score

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

If Beale Street Could Talk

Isle of Dogs

Mary Poppins Returns

I think this one is pretty obvious.

Original Song

“All the Stars,” Black Panther

“I’ll Fight,” RBG

“The Place Where Lost Things Go,” Mary Poppins Returns

“Shallow,” A Star Is Born

“When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings,” The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Gotta admit, I didn’t see any of these so this is a shot in the dark.

Documentary Short

Black Sheep

End Game

Lifeboat

A Night at the Garden

Period. End of Sentence.

Tight race between two gorgeous black and white films, but I think based on the number of other nominations, Roma wins.

Cinematography

Cold War, Lukasz Zal

The Favourite, Robbie Ryan

Never Look Away, Caleb Deschanel

Roma, Alfonso Cuarón

A Star Is Born, Matthew Libatique

If you go climb El Capitan without ropes, you deserve an Oscar.

Best Documentary Feature

Free Solo

Hale County This Morning, This Evening

Minding the Gap

Of Fathers and Sons

RBG

Cuarón’s team built city blocks recreating 1970’s Mexico City, so yeah. Take it.

Production Design

Black Panther

The Favourite

First Man

Mary Poppins Returns

Roma

What is sound mixing? I don’t know, but the sound was the best thing about First Man, so here’s an Oscar.

Sound Mixing

Black Panther

Bohemian Rhapsody

First Man

Roma

A Star Is Born

Great costumes in all of these. If Black Panther wins, I’d be fine with that. I do want The Favourite to win something though.

Costume Design

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Black Panther

The Favourite

Mary Poppins Returns

Mary Queen of Scots

I could see BlacKkKlansman getting this award and that’s ok. I’m kind of surprised that Bohemian Rhapsody got a nod over A Star Is Born, but I didn’t like either movie all that much so whatever.

Film Editing

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Green Book

Vice

Sound plays such a huge part of A Quiet Place, and they totally nailed it. Give this movie some love and get ready for the sequel!

Sound Editing

Black Panther

Bohemian Rhapsody

First Man

Roma

Bao is such a great short. Intense, sad, and beautiful.

Animated Short Film

Animal Behavior

Bao

Late Afternoon

One Small Step

Weekends

Again, this one is a total guess.

Live Action Short

Detainment

Fauve

Marguerite

Mother

Skin

I’ll say this for Vice, Christian Bale looked like Dick Cheney and Steve Carell looked like Don Rumsfeld.

Makeup and Hairstyling

Border

Mary Queen of Scots

Vice

Meh

Visual Effects

Avengers: Infinity War

Christopher Robin

First Man

Ready Player One

Solo: A Star Wars Story